2022 real estate recap

Last year was a great year for real estate sales at Arlington Place, a riverfront neighborhood located in Minnesott Beach, North Carolina. Our stunning waterfront views and a wide range of amenities were key factors for driving an increase in sales and construction activity.

Many properties sold at or above asking price with some even receiving multiple offers. This steady increase in demand has driven property values up and has attracted home buyers as well as professional builders.

News Homes and a New Lake in 2022

Satellite views of 2022
You can see how AP has grown over the last year by clicking through the images in the slider below. These are monthly snapshots from December 2021 to January 2023. They were taken by the Sentinel-2 satellite and we acquired them using Google’s Earth Engine application. Sorry for the grain but 10 meters is the finest resolution for recent imagery that’s publically available.

Then and now image comparison
You can also slide the handle on the images below the slider for a comparison between the first and last images.

Homes closed at AP in 2022

In 2022 we closed on 19 homes inside Arlington Place commanding an average price per square foot 31% higher than all the other homes sold in Pamlico County! Click through the slider below for a recap of the homes that were sold in 2022.

Homesites sold at AP in 2022

Nearly a quarter of all the land sold in Pamlico County last year happened at Arlington Place. And just like the premium on built homes, the price per acre on land inside AP was on average 54% than all other land sold in Pamlico County. If you’re curious, here are links to all the homesites we sold in 2022.

358, 150, 66, 67, 353, 359, 387, 303, 302, 349, 269, 270, 51, 316, 231, 341, 367, 368, 49, 50, 144, 146, 155, 156, 395, 396, 352, 314, 315, 364, 197, 301, 226, 347, 54, 280 and 27.

What’s driving real estate sales at AP?

Arlington Place, sits on a bluff above the Neuse River between the charming coastal towns of New Bern and Oriental, North Carolina. The concept and planning of Arlington Place began in the early 2000s, with the goal of creating a neighborhood that would offer residents a high-end waterfront lifestyle.

Our private neighborhood offers residents the opportunity to enjoy the beauty of the coast while still having the convenience of modern amenities. With its picturesque setting, top-notch amenities, and prime location, Arlington Place has become one of the most sought-after neighborhoods in the area.

One of the key features of Arlington Place is its elevations, unique to the coast. The neighborhood is situated high on the Minnesott Ridge along the banks of the Neuse River, offering residents and visitors endless waterfront views and average elevations of 21′ above sea level which means no flooding or flood insurance.

The neighborhood has its own day docks as well as a planned (and permitted) marina, complete with dry stack storage. This will allow residents to keep their boats on-site, and will provide even easier access to the river and the nearby Intracoastal Waterway. This feature makes Arlington Place a popular destination for boating enthusiasts and anglers.

Families also love that we are literally right across the street from the Arapahoe Charter School, making for a very convenient commute wether by bike, golf cart or car.

Another major draw of Arlington Place are its amenities. The neighborhood has a wide range of recreational activities and facilities. These include the Mill Creek kayak launch and Outfitters Center, tennis/pickleball courts, a swimming pool, riverfront beach, trails, a clubhouse and much more.

One of the most attractive aspects of Arlington Place is the sense of community that it fosters for both residents and the community at large. Arlington Place is home to a diverse group of seasonal and full-time residents.

The neighborhood is walking and cycling friendly and even features a long boardwalk over a native marsh. These features invite exploration of our area’s natural beauty.

AP also has an active and up to date calendar of events as well as activities that are organized throughout the year. These gatherings are always a hit, bringing residents together and providing opportunities for socializing and networking.

We also support many local causes and played a key role reducing insurance rates for AP owners by helping the local fire department increase its station rating. You can read more about that story here.

The success of Arlington Place can be attributed to its combination of location, amenities, and community. Arlington Place’s prime waterfront location, top-notch amenities, and sense of community have made it one of the most desirable places to live in the Pamlico County and the surrounding area, just ask the neighbors.  Large homesites and plenty of open space has also been a major draw for residents. The success of Arlington Place is a testament to the enduring appeal of thoughtful development and waterfront living.

2022 real estate sales data

The “AP Premium”

Arlington Place presents both unique investment opportunities for prospective builders and a unique value proposition for prospective homeowners. To better understand these dynamics, we did a deep dive into the relevant GIS data.

In absolute terms, an average AP home captured a 2022 sales price ~$233k higher than comparable sales in the surrounding county, both because those AP homes were nearly 50% larger, and because of AP’s aggregate 31% price per square foot premium.

Normalize Data to View Results Through a Fair & Reasonable Lens

After a bit of digging, the need for upper and lower data bounds became obvious:

• Nestled deep within the data were significant outliers—from the tiny home to the mega mansion. Both significantly muddy up a reasonable average.
• Price per square foot tends to drop as square footage increases. Of course many other factors determine a home’s price, so while this relationship certainly isn’t perfectly linear, it’s absolutely worth understanding the data within a reasonable square footage range.

So we set a Range:

• Upper and lower bounds of 1,000 ft^2 and 2,200 ft^2, respectively
• Determined with a simple 2s distribution analysis of historical square footage residential home sales in Pamlico County.
• This eliminated both outliers and resulting skewed results

Data Confirms Experience:

We filtered current sales data to analyze homes between 1,000 and 2,200 square feet, and were surprised to discover how significantly the price per square foot gap widened once we removed proverbial “noise”.

As it turns out, our statistically determined range for home size almost perfectly aligns with AP’s historical sweet spot between builder, investor, & buyer. With data normalized, the “AP Premium” on price per square foot more than doubles, from a 31% gap to a 69% one.

Perhaps it’s as simple as a manageable home size within an adventure-loving, amenity-laden, community full of natural beauty.

It Just Works

Quick sale times and attractive sale prices are making Arlington Place an increasingly popular investment for local builders:

• Unlike many surrounding areas, home price per square foot in Arlington Place has kept pace with increasing construction costs.
• 80% of model homes completed in 2022 went under contract prior to completion.
• 83% of 2022 home resales received a contract to purchase in under 10 days.
• A record number of new homes were completed in 2022
• 2023 promises to beat this record, with 36%

A few notes on methodology for all you data nerds out there:

We examined Pamlico County GIS records* for 2022 real estate transactions with recorded heated square footage. We then applied a handful of filters to make our comparison as fair as possible:

• For obvious reasons, we excluded sales of mobile homes, commercial real estate, and boat slips.
• Because a large parcel of farmland isn’t comparable to a lot within a gated development, we limited lot size to 3 acres.
• Finally, we excluded any transaction with a reported sale amount of $0.

*Data as of 1/25/23